“The Alberta economy continues to move forward but with the headwinds of a poor Canadian economy, more cracks are appearing in its armour.” So begins the Business Council of Alberta’s latest economic update, the Winter 2024 Alberta Snapshot. This report highlights the both the challenges and prospectives the province has encountered over the last quarter.
Some key findings are as follows: unemployment has risen to 7.3%, signaling a sizable slowdown in work opportunities such that there are at least three jobseekers for each job vacancy. Despite 13,000 additional jobs last month, job creation growth is still only 1% annually. Recent immigrants are particularly feeling the effects of this weak labour market, with unemployment among newcomers a steep 15%. Many sectors are struggling – especially those serving the domestic market – as weak consumer spending takes its toll.
In terms of housing, the outlook for residential construction is less optimistic long-term due to recent federal immigration cuts. Albertans face declining purchasing power, with discretionary spending taking a hit. And although severe financial troubles like bankruptcies and mortgages in arrears haven’t materialized yet, they could if the labour market worsens, particularly as oil and gas revenues come under pressure as commodity prices soften.
Despite these challenges, there’s hope. Lower interest rates should ease pressure on consumers and businesses, paving the way for stronger future economic progress. A quarter of Alberta’s 4.1% population growth rate was driven by interprovincial migration, which includes tradespeople moving in from other provinces. This is especially relevant to the construction sector, which relies on robust labour market conditions to continue to meet the demands of upcoming major projects.
Read the BCA’s full report here.
