Canada: Construction and Maintenance Looking Forward, a new report by BuildForce Canada, offers a detailed analysis of construction activity and labour market dynamics across the country for the decade ahead. It draws on BuildForce’s proprietary labour market information system, which combines input from industry stakeholders, government data, and economic modelling. We summarized some of the findings below.
In Alberta, the construction sector is expected to experience a significant short-term surge through 2024 into 2025, driven by major infrastructure investments such as the Calgary and Edmonton LRT expansions, new gas-fired power plants, petrochemical developments, and a growing number of renewable energy projects. As a result, construction employment was anticipated to grow by 3,700 workers – or 2.4% – in 2024 alone.
Beyond 2025, activity is projected to plateau slightly as these major projects wrap up. Even so, the non-residential sector is expected to remain resilient, with continued demand in industrial construction and maintenance providing a degree of stability. The residential construction sector, meanwhile, is likely to see fluctuations tied to interest rates and housing affordability. While growth may slow in the short term, modest gains are possible in the latter part of the decade.
Labour market challenges are expected to intensify in Alberta over the coming years. The province is facing the retirement of approximately 38,300 workers – about 23% of its 2023 construction workforce – by 2033. With only 27,300 new workers anticipated to enter the industry from the local youth population, a significant skills gap is on the horizon. To meet demand and replace retirees, Alberta will need to recruit 40,300 new workers before 2033. Heavy equipment operators, electricians, millwrights, and welders are tradespeople in particularly high demand. Addressing these shortages will require strategic use of interprovincial mobility and immigration, especially for specialized trades where local supply falls short
Overall, Alberta is entering a period of strong construction activity, but the long-term sustainability of its workforce will depend on how well the industry responds to demographic pressures and recruitment needs. Nationally, similar trends are at play, underlining the importance of proactive training, recruitment, and immigration strategies. It’s also important to note that these forecasts are based on current policy conditions. Future policy changes – particularly following upcoming elections – could significantly alter the landscape, especially in Alberta, where the balance between traditional energy development and emerging sectors remains finely tuned.
Read the whole report here.
